By DJ McAneny - Gloucester County Times - September 6, 2010

While the country takes the day off Monday to celebrate the strength of the work force, experts are saying that the rebounding economy shows positive signs despite sluggish growth.

Between Labor Day 2007 and Labor Day 2009, the combined counties of Gloucester, Burlington and Camden lost approximately 36,000 jobs about 1,500 jobs a month, according to U.S. Rep Robert Andrews, D-1st Dist., of Haddon Heights. Between Labor Day 2009 and this year, however, there's been a resurgence of approximately 12,000 jobs, a gain of about 1,000 new jobs a month, said Andrews.

"It's a good sign, but it's not nearly good enough if you're one of those 20,000 people still out of work," Andrews said.

"I don't think we can call this good news' until everyone looking for a job finds one," the congressman added. "There is still a lot of work to be done, but there has been some progress. We're hopeful that there will be continued improvement, but I don't think anyone can promise that."

Lisa Morina, executive director of the Gloucester County Department of Economic Development, agrees that there is work to be done. She added, however, that the county has seen some specific growth and should, in the coming months, see the payoff from several strong investments by business.

"We have had some wins for the county," she said. "We've been holding our own. There were significant layoffs, and we're still feeling the effects of the Sunoco closing and the post office cutting back," she added, referring to the U.S. Postal Service's closure of a Logan Township processing facility last year.

"But there are a number of new companies here as well. We should start seeing the results as they get up and running between the fall and the end of the year."

Morina cited JVK Operations, an industrial laundry service, getting ready to open an extension in Gloucester County after reaching an agreement at the end of June, and SMS Millcraft, a performance metal production company, coming to the area with $2.5M in capital.

Dr. Jack Worrall, a professor of economics at Rutgers' Camden campus, echoed the observations of local officials. There is room for cautious optimism, Worrall said, but the area has faced some hurdles and hasn't reached the target point of a recovery that, last year, was predicted by many to kick off this past February.

"There is some good news, at least nationwide," Worrall said. "Unemployment has fallen a bit, there's been some job creation. We're certainly not losing jobs the way we were. And new unemployment claims are down. Speed bump' is a good way to describe it. From June to July, unemployment was a little higher than it was last year."

Many factors directly affect recovery in a given area, Worrall explained, like what type of industry the area is most heavily dependent on, or how easily businesses can find monetary support from financial institutions. Another factor is whether a specific economic problem has reached a point where working on an exit strategy is viable.

"Are we even coming out of the recession yet?" Worrall asked. "I'd say, Yes.' We did have some growth in the economy. It has slowed a bit since, but it is occurring. New jobs are being created. Will we go back into a recession? I don't think so, but there is a possibility.

"Although growth will probably remain sluggish," he explained, "the probability is well under 50 percent maybe 25 percent. But recovery depends on the demand for goods and services in the area and the nature of the market in that area."

To both Andrews and Morina, small business growth is the key to economic success for South Jersey. While big projects from strong, established companies can give a positive boost to an area, they said that the continuous trickle of new jobs from local endeavors lays the foundation for economic development.

"Small businesses need more help," said Andrews. "Credit needs to open up to small businesses more readily. That is one key area that needs to see more dramatic improvement. The big banks aren't lending in the way that they need to. If you look at the amount of credit the banks have outstanding, the total amount banks have loaned out is about $1 trillion short of what you should expect to be lent out. I think that's the main reason we haven't seen a stronger resurgence."

Andrews said that fears of another crash are restraining lenders who continue to harbor concerns about the crash of two years ago. Cautious, they are loaning money only to high quality projects, which the congressman said has made the task of rebuilding that much more difficult.

Their fears are understandable, he added.

"It's common sense that, if you know hard times are coming, you hold onto your cash," said Andrews.

Although lending has been more stringent, Morina observed that such restrictions have significantly raised the overall quality of projects being undertaken. She also noted that, since it is now common for a venture to acquire its own starting capital due to difficulties of acquiring it through a bank, it gives them a stronger footing against failure.

"We continue to see improvements by capable companies," Morina said. "These are the signs that things are turning around, they've just been really, really slow. But that growth, while slow, has been consistent and steady, and that is significant in this economy. And to look at the quality of the companies that continue to expand, they have quality backing, as opposed to having to go looking for capital."

Serious projects like Rowan Boulevard or the Port of Paulsboro, Andrews suggested, or more simple ideas that can create a ripple of new jobs like the installation of solar panels along light poles in the state in an effort to reach compliance with the plan to have 20 percent of New Jersey's energy come from renewable resources, do have the funding to back them.

"The banks still need to loosen that criteria, though," the economic development official added. "We need to see more money flowing from those pipelines."

She said Gloucester County is most certainly not down for the count, and hopes the silver lining will soon start to fill in the rest of the picture.

"I'm optimistic," said Morina. "We're seeing a lot of recent movement. We're definitely not dead, but we're also not going crazy. It doesn't mean we're going to win every one, but the signs are there. It's too early to say. So much depends on the national economy and national movement, but one big win could turn things around for Gloucester County. Where is that win, though? I think it's going to come in smaller doses."